Asia-Pacific freight markets are entering a new phase as production rebounds after the Lunar New Year. However, tariff uncertainty and weak ocean freight rates are reshaping regional trade flows.
Manufacturers across Asia restarted operations after the holiday break. Consequently, freight activity has started to rise again. At the same time, shifting trade policies and changing supply chain strategies are altering how goods move across the region.
Industry analysts say these combined factors are forcing logistics companies and exporters to adapt quickly.
Recent insights from Dimerco Express Group’s March freight report highlight a complex environment. The report shows tightening air cargo capacity in Northeast Asia alongside continued weakness in ocean shipping rates.
Together, these trends illustrate how Asia-Pacific freight markets remain sensitive to policy changes and capacity shifts.
Global manufacturing activity has improved slightly at the start of the year. The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reached 52.4, signaling stronger production and new orders.
Nevertheless, freight conditions remain uneven across different transport modes.
Air cargo markets show the strongest signs of recovery. Factory activity has increased shipments of electronics and advanced technology products.
As a result, cargo capacity from Taiwan and South Korea to the United States has tightened significantly. High-tech exports such as semiconductor equipment, AI servers, and electronics continue to drive strong demand for air freight.
Additionally, certain intra-Asia routes are experiencing selective capacity constraints. These pressures appear as factories increase production after the holiday break.
Consequently, airlines and logistics providers must manage limited cargo space carefully.
At the same time, policy developments in the United States continue to influence supply chains. Several tariff rulings and trade measures are shaping sourcing decisions across Asia.
For example, the temporary Section 122 duty and recent rulings related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act have added uncertainty for exporters.
These developments affect how manufacturers distribute production across the region.
For several years, many companies adopted the “China+1” manufacturing strategy. Under this approach, businesses diversified production beyond China to countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.
This shift generated strong intra-Asia freight volumes. Raw materials moved frequently between factories and regional suppliers.
However, analysts warn that uniform tariff treatment across countries could reverse this trend.
If tariffs apply equally across multiple countries, companies may again export directly from China. In that case, intra-Asia freight volumes could decline compared with recent years.
Therefore, Asia-Pacific freight markets could experience another structural adjustment.
While air cargo shows mixed strength, ocean freight markets remain weak.
Shipping lines have attempted to stabilize rates through capacity management. Many carriers canceled sailings between February and March to reduce supply.
Industry data shows that about 18 percent of sailings were canceled during that period. Most of these cancellations occurred on the Transpacific Eastbound trade lane.
Despite these efforts, freight rates have not increased significantly.
Several factors continue to pressure ocean freight markets. New vessel deliveries have expanded global shipping capacity.
At the same time, some shipping routes through the Suez Canal are gradually reopening. These developments increase effective shipping capacity across major trade lanes.
As capacity rises, carriers struggle to restore higher freight rates.
Consequently, shipping companies face growing financial pressure.
Trade compliance issues also add uncertainty for exporters and logistics providers.
Some tariffs introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were recently ruled unlawful. However, authorities have not yet clarified how companies should claim refunds.
Additionally, other trade measures remain under review.
Regulations under Sections 301, 232, 122, and 338 continue to affect international trade. As a result, companies must monitor compliance risks carefully.
The evolving policy environment plays a major role in shaping Asia-Pacific freight markets.
Several developments may influence freight activity in the coming weeks.
For instance, China’s photovoltaic industry may accelerate exports before the removal of a value-added tax rebate on April 1. This change could temporarily increase shipping volumes.
Meanwhile, India’s fiscal year-end export activity may also boost regional freight demand.
Seasonal factors in Southeast Asia may also influence logistics operations.
Ramadan and the Idul Fitri holiday period often affect port activity, factory production, and trucking schedules across the region.
These seasonal adjustments could create temporary disruptions in shipping schedules.
Industry experts believe the post–Lunar New Year shipping surge will likely remain limited.
Weak consumer demand in major markets continues to suppress freight growth.
Therefore, shipping lines are likely to focus again on capacity management.
Carriers may cancel additional sailings or adjust routes to stabilize freight rates. However, analysts say it remains uncertain whether these measures will succeed.
The outlook for Asia-Pacific freight markets therefore remains mixed.
On one hand, manufacturing activity shows signs of recovery. On the other hand, trade policies and shipping capacity challenges continue to shape the industry.
For exporters, logistics providers, and carriers, adaptability will remain essential.
As global trade patterns evolve, companies must navigate shifting tariffs, changing production strategies, and uncertain freight demand.
These factors will continue to define freight markets across the Asia-Pacific region in the months ahead.